Thursday, February 16, 2006
PEI Is Shrinking
And pretty dramatically, according to this article on CBC: Link.
So right now the actual population numbers are growing, ever so slightly, but the number of people who want to have children here is going to drop like a stone. Population of school-age kids to drop dramatically by 2030 Last updated Feb 16 2006 04:14 PM AST
CBC News The Island's education system faces a serious demographic challenge if a projected drop in the number of school-aged children holds true, says an education expert. The number of children attending primary and secondary schools is projected to fall by nearly 30 per cent over next two decades, said Richard Kurial, the chairman of the Task Force on Student Achievement. The task force produced a 46-page report, entitled Excellence in Education: A Challenge for Prince Edward Island. Kurial, who is also the Dean of Arts at the University of Prince Edward Island, has been raising the topic in addresses to various Rotary Clubs. He spoke to the Summerside Rotary Club this week. According to the report, released in December, the Island's population of young people aged six to 17 will fall to 15,624, compared to 22,082 in 2005, a drop of 6,458. In 2000, the student-age population was 24,127.
"It's a serious demographic challenge," Kurial said an interview with CBC.ca. It doesn't mean class-sizes will just get smaller, but rather that students in the future will see fewer resources in the classroom. The biggest challenge will be how school boards decide to stretch existing resources over a decreasing number of students. "If a class gets to a size where there's just one student, the system won't be able to provide that student with equitable resources," said Kurial. Among the recommendations he made in the report was for the province to "abandon its commitment to the policy that it will close no schools in P.E.I." The report also recommended that school boards be given the authority "to examine changing demographics…and current school zoning with a view to enhancing and rationalizing programs and services."
So people apparently don't see themselves having enough of a future here to want to start families and raise children. Of all the people I regularly talk to under the age of thirty I can't think of any who don't have it in their minds that they are planning to pick up and move somewhere more exciting or promising as soon as they finish school or find an interesting job offer or just get tired of the place one day and split.
People I know who have good jobs here, ones that you need a lot of education for and that are considered high-skill, face the prospect of having to leave the island if the position they're in goes away. There isn't a critical mass of businesses here to support people who want ot make PEI their permanent home.
Speaking personally, I'm looking for full-time work now, since the computer consulting thing can certainly pay from time to time, and the lifestyle is sort of addictive, but the lack of a steady paycheque is making me shy away from signing an apartment lease and doing other things that require longer-term commitments. I've got an interesting bit of experience out of it working with a few various languages and systems, but I think I'm gonna try something new once again, and it's looking like that will include a move somewhere else.
PEI is a pretty place but there's a gloomy feeling among a lot of young people I know here. People either hope to leave, are losing hope or never had it to begin with.
There's another pretty strong force keeping me here, though, and that's that I have a couple of close friends here, and for me those are few and far between. I have a bit of a fear of ending up in a strange new place by myself and without any support. Maybe that comes from my first experience living alone in Saint John when I was on my first work term. I always said that having unlimited long distance calling and a girlfriend to talk to back in Charlottetown saved my sanity. But maybe it was what kept me from actually venturing out my door and looking to meet new people. I haven't really thought of it from that angle before.
Sorry, I'm rambling. and getting introspective, something I usually don't do on here.
I've been feeling a little aimless and empty for quite a while now. Other people's way of dealing with that seems to be to say that they'll be going somewhere else soon, to start their real life. I don't have as simple a ready-made bright spot.
Maybe I'll just have to make a change just to shake up the mental gears a little.
Economics is one. The cost of raising a child is pretty damn expensive. So people are putting it off until they are older and move further up the corporate ladder.
People are career-oriented. They want to progress their career and don't have time for children. The best way to move up quickly is by moving from company to company, so that's even less time for kids.
Both partners work and have careers and no one can stay home and raise a child.
I know my sister (who's a Vice-President of a multi-million dollar corporation and under the age of 30) voices many of these concerns. The whole being settled in one place isn't an issue. She's not really planning on moving around, but all the other stuff related to children she doesn't have time or money for.
I guess that what a lot of things boil down to these days. . . time and money.
Gloom - man that is the key word.
The other demographic force in PEI is the growing elder population.
That means politics and culture will be dominated by the aged. Their top issues are health care, Canada Pension, and the problem of loitering youth.
That CBC story scares me. Less young people kinda puts the fucks to the future doesn't it?
This CBC story should be a wake up call to the government of Pat Binns that a strategy is needed NOW to turn this trend around.
PEI is turning into one of those ice floes that old, dying eskimos float out to sea on. Gloomy indeed.
KW
