Election Predictions

Peter prompted me to predict the number of seats each party will win on Monday, and it's something my father and I have done for a while (we were within 1 seat in 1993). So here goes:

Liberals: 115
Conservatives: 103
BQ: 55
NDP: 35

Predictions based on the BQ making back the losses they suffered in the last election, with the collapse of the last vestiges of Charest Tory support and the Liberal meltdown. NDP are looking for a few surprise wins (Charlottetown looks like it might go NDP this time around. Someone is tearing down all the NDP signs and it looks like the Liberals are very scared.)

The Conservatives will keep most of their seats in the West (losing a few in BC and Saskatchewan to the NDP) and picking up the formerly split ridings in Ontario.

The Maritimes are, as always, all over the map; with individual candidates being more important than party affiliation in these parts. I figure the Liberals will pick up Elsie Wayne's seat in Saint John, there are rumblings that Carty is looking strong in Fredericton to beat out Andy Scott.

I would give 1:2 odds for a Green seat in BC, there's one candidate in the Queen Charlotte islands area who is actually looking quite strong, and the party is putting a lot of its efforts into that one riding to get a foothold into the House of Commons.

Now I need to find someone with a TV to visit tomorrow to watch the thing unfold :)

Put your predictions in the comments and we'll see who wins.