Le Débat des Chefs

edit: Blogger's spellchecker spazzed all over my frigging post. Blech.

J'ecoute le débat féderaux en français, pendant que je fais les conversations de text en anglais et aussi je modifie les codes en VHDL. Mes circuits de langue se travailles aux tous cylindres maintenant.

The leaders are mostly taking every opportunity to repeat their talking points, especially the two non-native French speakers (Harper and Layton). Their French is, however, much better than the previous leaders of those two respective parties, Stockwell Day and Alexa MacDonnough. They can at least hold up their ends of a debate, and there is yet no repeat of the terribly awkward moment in the last debate when Alexa and Stockwell started arguing and both realized they were in way over their heads.

Look at me, Mr. Style-over-Substance, I feel like such a CNN media whore. OK, back to the content. The src.ca video stream keeps cutting out. Duceppe has picked up Martin's attack line against the Conservatives, painting Harper as a Reformer in Tory clothing, making allusions to George W. Bush's republican policies with respect to unwise, imprudent tax cutting even in the face of budget deficits. Harper doesn't have a proper response to the Centre for Policy Alternatives budget calculations besides waving his hands and trying to pretend it isn't accurate, but not offering solid numbers to show that his plans won't cause a deficit.

The attacks on Martin are the same as we've been seeing in the press up until now. The mentions the the sponsorship scandal have been kept to a minimum, however. Duceppe seems to not want to get his hands dirty on the matter, despite it being a very Quebec-centered scandal. Layton has not made much mention of the Liberals' scandals at all, and I don't think Harper has gotten the opportunity to address it, being forced by the debate questions to talk policy. (this is why I much prefer the debates to the usual ads and press coverage. There's someone there to tell them to stay on topic and to behave.)

...

Duceppe has really taken the lead in tying Harper to all the nightmarish mistakes of tax-cutting policies the the US. I think he tastes blood. Perhaps his polling is suggesting a stronger challenge from the Quebec Conservatives than the conventional wisdom would suggest. Otherwise his only real threat comes from Martin, and I'm surprised he's wasting his time on Harper. It's quite clear that Duceppe is making no room for a Conservative - Bloc governing coalition.

Martin speaks French like a school-teacher. Layton sounds like a good student in French class, impeccable pronunciation, careful vocabulary, the slight pause after pulling out a new vocabulary word. Harper has a grating accent, no attempt to sound French. He's stumbled over a few words here and there, but still a good performance. Duceppe is much more pleasant to listen to in French. In English his voice has a wiry, high-pitched quality to it that doesn't fit with Anglo sensibilities and makes his voice sound weak, in French it fits nicely, and his Quebecer accent pokes his head out enough to remind you that this is his proper place.

The other leaders are making a poor case attacking Martin for running surpluses and paying down the debt, saying that he should be re-investing in healthcare, etc. I think a combination of debt-repayment and increased spending is the way to go, but it's hard to argue half-measures. Unfortunately it's even harder to argue against fiscal prudence and still sound convincing.

Harper is talking up provinces' desire for more control over federal funding. Layton is doing a pretty good job talking up his Toronto city council experience, proposing slightly more solid improvements for urban development than Martin's oft-repeated but undetailed 'new deal for cities'.

Harper is accusing Martin of putting the country's interests on the back burner in favour of his internal purge of Chretien loyalists from the party. Martin is replying by again raising specter of a privatization-mad proto-republican Conservative government without replying directly to the accusation. He'll over play this hand very quickly if he doesn't find some new talking points.

The moderator just remarked that every election seems to be about healthcare, and that perhaps that implies that the governments up to this point aren't actually delivering on their promises. Martin's position as finance minister makes him the de facto boogeyman who's kept healthcare spending low all this time. He hasn't replied to this properly yet either.

Every time Martin promises funding for one thing or another he never forgets to point Harper's respective lack of commitment in each area (cities, solid healthcare plans, educations).

Layton: "after seeing them break their promises over and over, are we just going to give the liberals a present of another government, or are we going to go in a new direction?" Martin is attacking Layton for planning to raise taxes. Layton needs a sound bite-sized response to this pointing out that he just wants to bring in an inheritance tax for very large estates, and not across-the-board "higher taxes" as the attacks imply.

Duceppe is now aligning himself with the provincial Liberals in Quebec, saying "even the provincial liberals, sovereigntists, are criticizing your healthcare policies."

They've avoided social issues up to this point, now the last segment will be devoted to them. Harper is getting smacked for his ducking of tough questions by backing MP free votes. Harper says he's ready to accept the decision of parliament on same-sex marriage, but says he prefers the "traditional definition." Basically a non-response. Doubtful any of his core supporters are watching. Duceppe comes out in favour of abortion, accuses the Liberals of being more split than Martin would like to admit on social issues, this is definitely true. Martin is being attacked for not showing enough leadership on one front and not allowing free votes on the other. Layton's call for a just society is typically eloquent. Martin brings up the cultural differences between Quebec and the rest of the country (specifically the West), promises he'll fight any attempt by the provinces to use the notwithstanding clause to abrogate provisions of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Good.

Martin just brought up the conservative candidate who called for eliminating bilingualism. Harper's wacky MP candidates are going to be trouble for his image. At least none of them have praised Hitler yet this election cycle. Martin just challenge Harper with a yes or no question: "will you allow the notwithstanding clause to be invoked against a provision of the court?". He just weaseled for a while, then the moderator called on someone else.

Layton is being smart by staying positive on social issues. This is his strength, he's staying above the fray on things like abortion and fighting the courts, and instead speaking in broader terms. Layton took a question Harper on party discipline and changed it into a question of human rights and higher principles. Reverse judo flip, executed quite well. These two seem to speak totally different languages, Harper having to talk to conservative Christian voters in Alberta and not offend them, this could tear away some of the NDP's old-time Saskatchewan base if they push it too much. If I was in charge I'd leave the social issues to the Liberals and push entirely on economic equality, leaving the courts to interpret human rights questions and not getting into it.

The arguments are all civil except for when the other candidates attack Martin, there is real emotional teeth behind attacks on actions of the Liberals, much more so than policy wonkish exchanges between the other parties who don't have to defend their records.

Harper just got smacked good by Duceppe: "you attack my party for not being able to form the government, is democracy for you only about power? Avez-vous perdais votre tête?" No coalition here. On social issues the Bloc are somewhere between the Liberals and the NDP.

It is hard to declare a "winner" as is the tradition of debate-watching other than Duceppe, but he can talk directly to Quebecers, and be much more narrow and pointed. Will be interesting to see how he changes his tack in the English debate, if he keeps on attacking Martin for the same points or if he joins more in the sponsorship scandal pile-on.

Marks, based on ability to defend their policy positions,

Martin: B - he has more to defend, makes his job more difficult. Struck back with broadsides a little to much.
Harper: B+ - has no proper responses when cornered re: social issues, or how to pay for his tax cuts.
Layton: A- - Not really seriously attacked, other than for wanting to do something other than slash taxes, chose to speak above the fray on social issues. His French isn't as natural as the others, sometimes a little too halting, he loses his rhythm a little too easily in French.
Duceppe: A- - The question of the real purpose of the BQ hangs over Duceppe, are they there only to attack the Liberals, or do they still want sovereignty? He seems confused on this topic, however when he does pick a point, he executes it well and does contribute to the debate.